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Because markets are not efficient, emotion plays a crucial but amorphous role. Jeffrey Currie, the senior commodity analyst at Goldman Sachs, put out a note on Monday which argued that the markets had “nothing to fear but fear itself”.
portion of their portfolios invested in cash than at any time since 2001.
Perhaps the admittedly benign economic fundamentals outweigh the financial dislocations. But add to the latter a palpable sense of market unease and the balance begins to tip.
That is why all eyes are trained on the meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors in Shanghai, appropriately enough, on February 26 and 27 to see how they will respond.
Bubbles always burst. But some grow a little larger and float a touch longer on the breeze before they do. The question, therefore, is not “if” but “when”. One wrong step by the world’s central banks and that could be sooner rather than later.